European government leaders met over the weekend and delivered hopes and promises but
not enough substance or resolve. We have probably come some way back from the brink. Euro
zone financial intuitions remain very vulnerable but for the moment there seems a diminished
risk of an imminent collapse. The headlines that mostly focus on the position of the UK miss
the point the European politicians have still failed to deliver a plan that can materially change
the direction of the current crisis. The Euro zone still faces a mountain of debt that it has to be
rolled over next year. The European summit has provided some further steps towards a
solution but it remains steps rather than strides. The pace of the crisis will to our mind remain
dominated by the market reaction not the strategies of the policy makers. We continue to
advise caution.
The still missing component of the attempts to save the Euro zone is money. Member states
need to repay of €1.1trillion of debt in 2012 the bulk of it in the first six months. The Euro zone
banks also have $665 billion of debt coming due in the first half of 2012. The Euro zone leaders
have proposed using the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Financial Stability Fund
(EFSF), the European Stability mechanism (EMS) and they are now going around- the-houses
to use the IMF. However, whichever way you look at it, the Euro zone still cannot safely say it
can underwrite its bond markets in the coming 12 months because it has insufficient funding.
The ECB is stopped out of buying bonds aggressively by the German insistence that the ECB
cannot be seen as lender of last resort. The EFSF has supposedly €440 billion to deploy but
few people know where the funds will come from. The EFSF has struggled to raise €11 billion
in the public markets. The EMS will not come into being until July possibly too late for this
crisis. In any case in some parts of Europe the EMS’s creation is seen as unconstitutional. This
all leaves the IMF. The Euro zone has agreed to lend €220 billion to the IMF via Euro zone
member states’ central banks which the IMF then lends back to the euro zone banks. The only
reason for such a convoluted way of dealing with things is so that the population of the Euro
zone doesn’t have to be consulted! Bottom line no institution is being allowed to print sufficient
money to bail out Europe. There is no lender of last resort, there is no last resort.
Private Banking - CIO Office. PBIGD121211U2443 - December 2011
PRIVATE BANKING from
CIO WEEKLY REVIEW
DECEMBER 12, 2011
The need for the Euro zone to find a convincing solution was brought into stark contrast after
data was released that showed that Euro zone banks continue to be heavy sellers of Euro zone
sovereign debt. In the last nine months the banks have sold €65billion of Euro zone sovereign
debt.
Whilst the politicians were putting together a plan that may convince some that there is real
progress pending the ECB’s moves continue to be quite tentative. The ECB cut interest rates
by 50bps very much in line with expectations but missing the opportunity to give a pleasant
surprise to the market and cut rates by a more aggressive 75bps.
The key question for investors is whether the initial positive sentiment of the markets post the
summit can be maintained. In the Euro zone sentiment is likely to be set by the tone of the
bond and cash markets. Italian and Spanish yields have fallen sharply from their highs. Italian
10-year yields that peaked at well over 7% have fallen to 5.75%. In order for Italian and
Spanish bonds to stay at lower levels will probably require the continued intervention of the
agencies such as IMF and ECB to buy the bonds. However buying by the government
agencies will have little credibility unless both Italian and Spanish governments deliver ongoing
budgetary discipline. The new Spanish government has been very quite since its election earlier
this month. In Italy the technocratic government is still assessing the level of support for the
new measures it announced recently.
The better mood in markets was helped by the better than expected data in the United States.
Consumer confidence continues to improve reinforcing the stronger pattern seen to retail sales
growth in the last couple of months. Consumer confidence has been helped by the stronger
than expected employment data that has shown the lowest level of jobless claims in over nine
months. The economic data is tracking a level of GDP growth of around 3% a very healthy
outcome given the global backdrop.
Our preference is to use the emerging asset markets as ways of taking incremental risk if
sentiment continues to improve. After all it is better to be left holding something you truly
believe in over the long haul than Euro zone assets that could lose considerable value in a
collapse. Although economic data out of China and Brazil came in below expectations last week
we believe that this only set the scene for potentially far greater monetary easing in the coming
months. In China fixed investment growth was the slowest in some years. There is also a
greater risk that the housing market will slow more rapidly than was expected. In Brazil October
industrial production was much weaker than expected paving the way for a probably 100bps cut
in interest rates over the course of the next quarter as well as unwind of other monetary
tightening seen earlier this year.
In the FX space the Euro will likely remain under some downward pressure. Sterling will
probably find some support particularly against the Euro given the political decision for the UK
to take an independent stance against the EU proposals.









